In [36]:
fig = Figure()
ax = Axis(fig[1,1])
scatter!(ax,val.Photovoltaik, color = "red", label = "val", markersize = 4)
scatter!(ax, dumb_estimates, color = "blue", label = "predict",markersize = 4)
axislegend(ax)
fig
Out[36]:
### A Pluto.jl notebook ###
# v0.19.32
using Markdown
using InteractiveUtils
begin
using Dates
using CSV
using DataFrames
using DataFramesMeta
using Chain
using CairoMakie
end
using GLM, StatsBase
using Random
ENV["COLUMNS"] = 1000; # print more columns of tables
df = CSV.read("../data_dojo_22/Realisierte_Erzeugung_201501010000_202305301300_Stunde.csv",
DataFrame,
delim=";",
decimal=',',
groupmark='.',
missingstring="-",
dateformat=Dict("Datum"=>"dd.mm.yyyy"),
types=Dict("Datum"=>Date)
);
begin
clean_colname(x) = replace(split(x, " [")[1], " " => "_")
clean_names = clean_colname.(names(df));
end
15-element Vector{String}:
"Datum"
"Anfang"
"Ende"
"Biomasse"
"Wasserkraft"
"Wind_Offshore"
"Wind_Onshore"
"Photovoltaik"
"Sonstige_Erneuerbare"
"Kernenergie"
"Braunkohle"
"Steinkohle"
"Erdgas"
"Pumpspeicher"
"Sonstige_Konventionelle"
rename!(df, clean_names)
| Row | Datum | Anfang | Ende | Biomasse | Wasserkraft | Wind_Offshore | Wind_Onshore | Photovoltaik | Sonstige_Erneuerbare | Kernenergie | Braunkohle | Steinkohle | Erdgas | Pumpspeicher | Sonstige_Konventionelle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Time | Time | Float64? | Float64? | Float64 | Float64 | Float64 | Float64? | Float64 | Float64? | Float64? | Float64? | Float64? | Float64? | |
| 1 | 2015-01-01 | 00:00:00 | 01:00:00 | 4024.25 | 1158.25 | 516.5 | 8128.0 | 0.0 | 133.0 | 10710.5 | 15687.2 | 3219.75 | 1226.25 | 1525.75 | 4909.25 |
| 2 | 2015-01-01 | 01:00:00 | 02:00:00 | 3982.75 | 1188.0 | 516.25 | 8297.5 | 0.0 | 122.5 | 11086.2 | 15321.8 | 2351.25 | 870.75 | 1079.25 | 4932.75 |
| 3 | 2015-01-01 | 02:00:00 | 03:00:00 | 4019.5 | 1139.25 | 514.0 | 8540.0 | 0.0 | 93.0 | 11026.2 | 14817.5 | 2227.0 | 809.5 | 787.0 | 5041.75 |
| 4 | 2015-01-01 | 03:00:00 | 04:00:00 | 4040.75 | 1122.5 | 517.75 | 8552.0 | 0.0 | 86.5 | 11027.8 | 14075.0 | 2339.75 | 821.0 | 287.75 | 5084.0 |
| 5 | 2015-01-01 | 04:00:00 | 05:00:00 | 4037.75 | 1112.0 | 519.75 | 8643.5 | 0.0 | 86.5 | 10962.2 | 14115.0 | 2461.5 | 831.25 | 346.75 | 5070.75 |
| 6 | 2015-01-01 | 05:00:00 | 06:00:00 | 4028.25 | 1107.75 | 520.0 | 8711.75 | 0.0 | 86.75 | 10696.0 | 13474.2 | 2217.75 | 851.0 | 765.5 | 5096.75 |
| 7 | 2015-01-01 | 06:00:00 | 07:00:00 | 4013.25 | 1111.75 | 521.5 | 9167.25 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 10299.5 | 12403.8 | 2373.25 | 868.25 | 414.5 | 5153.0 |
| 8 | 2015-01-01 | 07:00:00 | 08:00:00 | 4012.75 | 1113.75 | 520.25 | 9811.0 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 10035.2 | 12062.5 | 2491.0 | 876.0 | 582.5 | 5161.0 |
| 9 | 2015-01-01 | 08:00:00 | 09:00:00 | 3999.75 | 1107.5 | 525.25 | 9683.0 | 53.0 | 87.0 | 10245.8 | 12405.0 | 2530.25 | 888.25 | 750.5 | 5393.5 |
| 10 | 2015-01-01 | 09:00:00 | 10:00:00 | 4016.25 | 1121.0 | 527.0 | 9501.75 | 773.25 | 85.75 | 10060.2 | 12798.8 | 2386.25 | 891.5 | 387.0 | 5884.0 |
| 11 | 2015-01-01 | 10:00:00 | 11:00:00 | 4007.75 | 1122.0 | 525.0 | 10025.0 | 2116.75 | 82.0 | 10082.2 | 12728.5 | 2557.0 | 888.25 | 176.25 | 6064.0 |
| 12 | 2015-01-01 | 11:00:00 | 12:00:00 | 4011.75 | 1146.25 | 527.25 | 10862.5 | 3364.25 | 82.0 | 9949.0 | 12451.0 | 2657.75 | 876.5 | 884.5 | 5914.75 |
| 13 | 2015-01-01 | 12:00:00 | 13:00:00 | 4014.0 | 1139.75 | 527.75 | 11575.2 | 4198.25 | 82.0 | 10119.0 | 12464.5 | 2937.75 | 874.25 | 705.0 | 5778.25 |
| ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ |
| 73705 | 2023-05-30 | 01:00:00 | 02:00:00 | 4581.5 | 2033.75 | 3891.75 | 11488.5 | 0.0 | 119.5 | 0.0 | 3523.5 | 1288.5 | 3984.75 | 769.25 | 1146.0 |
| 73706 | 2023-05-30 | 02:00:00 | 03:00:00 | 4551.0 | 1963.5 | 3725.5 | 10141.0 | 0.0 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 3484.25 | 1263.75 | 3592.0 | 604.25 | 1141.75 |
| 73707 | 2023-05-30 | 03:00:00 | 04:00:00 | 4503.25 | 2090.5 | 3635.25 | 9170.25 | 0.0 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 3490.0 | 1272.5 | 4030.5 | 578.75 | 1132.5 |
| 73708 | 2023-05-30 | 04:00:00 | 05:00:00 | 4454.25 | 2105.25 | 3635.75 | 8735.75 | 2.25 | 120.0 | 0.0 | 3678.25 | 1275.0 | 4895.5 | 433.25 | 1136.0 |
| 73709 | 2023-05-30 | 05:00:00 | 06:00:00 | 4406.75 | 2134.75 | 2940.0 | 8419.75 | 407.75 | 120.25 | 0.0 | 4087.5 | 1289.25 | 5723.75 | 404.25 | 1142.25 |
| 73710 | 2023-05-30 | 06:00:00 | 07:00:00 | 4413.25 | 2227.5 | 2272.5 | 7531.0 | 2888.75 | 128.25 | 0.0 | 5010.75 | 1362.0 | 6525.25 | 2803.75 | 1144.5 |
| 73711 | 2023-05-30 | 07:00:00 | 08:00:00 | 4468.0 | 2276.5 | 1916.25 | 5507.25 | 8343.25 | 137.0 | 0.0 | 5275.5 | 1173.75 | 6905.75 | 5712.75 | 1156.75 |
| 73712 | 2023-05-30 | 08:00:00 | 09:00:00 | 4503.5 | 2152.5 | 1643.25 | 3647.75 | 15893.2 | 138.0 | 0.0 | 5181.75 | 1196.25 | 6946.5 | 5079.5 | 1132.0 |
| 73713 | 2023-05-30 | 09:00:00 | 10:00:00 | 4544.5 | 2156.25 | 1285.0 | 2900.5 | 23612.5 | 135.0 | 0.0 | 4707.5 | 1114.75 | 6384.5 | 2122.75 | 1115.0 |
| 73714 | 2023-05-30 | 10:00:00 | 11:00:00 | 4568.25 | 2085.25 | 1241.25 | 2729.5 | 30341.8 | 121.25 | 0.0 | 3978.5 | 1095.5 | 4802.5 | 1279.0 | 1096.25 |
| 73715 | 2023-05-30 | 11:00:00 | 12:00:00 | 4618.75 | 2068.25 | 1053.25 | 3115.0 | 35196.2 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 3759.75 | 1151.5 | 3762.25 | 774.0 | 1096.5 |
| 73716 | 2023-05-30 | 12:00:00 | 13:00:00 | 4612.25 | 1967.25 | 781.25 | 3496.25 | 37030.0 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 3765.0 | 1296.75 | 3240.0 | 196.75 | 1099.75 |
begin
datetime_vec = Dates.DateTime.(df.Datum, df.Anfang);
datetime_data = insertcols!(df,1, :Datetime => datetime_vec );
datetime_clean = select(datetime_data, Not([:Datum, :Anfang, :Ende]));
end
| Row | Datetime | Biomasse | Wasserkraft | Wind_Offshore | Wind_Onshore | Photovoltaik | Sonstige_Erneuerbare | Kernenergie | Braunkohle | Steinkohle | Erdgas | Pumpspeicher | Sonstige_Konventionelle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DateTime | Float64? | Float64? | Float64 | Float64 | Float64 | Float64? | Float64 | Float64? | Float64? | Float64? | Float64? | Float64? | |
| 1 | 2015-01-01T00:00:00 | 4024.25 | 1158.25 | 516.5 | 8128.0 | 0.0 | 133.0 | 10710.5 | 15687.2 | 3219.75 | 1226.25 | 1525.75 | 4909.25 |
| 2 | 2015-01-01T01:00:00 | 3982.75 | 1188.0 | 516.25 | 8297.5 | 0.0 | 122.5 | 11086.2 | 15321.8 | 2351.25 | 870.75 | 1079.25 | 4932.75 |
| 3 | 2015-01-01T02:00:00 | 4019.5 | 1139.25 | 514.0 | 8540.0 | 0.0 | 93.0 | 11026.2 | 14817.5 | 2227.0 | 809.5 | 787.0 | 5041.75 |
| 4 | 2015-01-01T03:00:00 | 4040.75 | 1122.5 | 517.75 | 8552.0 | 0.0 | 86.5 | 11027.8 | 14075.0 | 2339.75 | 821.0 | 287.75 | 5084.0 |
| 5 | 2015-01-01T04:00:00 | 4037.75 | 1112.0 | 519.75 | 8643.5 | 0.0 | 86.5 | 10962.2 | 14115.0 | 2461.5 | 831.25 | 346.75 | 5070.75 |
| 6 | 2015-01-01T05:00:00 | 4028.25 | 1107.75 | 520.0 | 8711.75 | 0.0 | 86.75 | 10696.0 | 13474.2 | 2217.75 | 851.0 | 765.5 | 5096.75 |
| 7 | 2015-01-01T06:00:00 | 4013.25 | 1111.75 | 521.5 | 9167.25 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 10299.5 | 12403.8 | 2373.25 | 868.25 | 414.5 | 5153.0 |
| 8 | 2015-01-01T07:00:00 | 4012.75 | 1113.75 | 520.25 | 9811.0 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 10035.2 | 12062.5 | 2491.0 | 876.0 | 582.5 | 5161.0 |
| 9 | 2015-01-01T08:00:00 | 3999.75 | 1107.5 | 525.25 | 9683.0 | 53.0 | 87.0 | 10245.8 | 12405.0 | 2530.25 | 888.25 | 750.5 | 5393.5 |
| 10 | 2015-01-01T09:00:00 | 4016.25 | 1121.0 | 527.0 | 9501.75 | 773.25 | 85.75 | 10060.2 | 12798.8 | 2386.25 | 891.5 | 387.0 | 5884.0 |
| 11 | 2015-01-01T10:00:00 | 4007.75 | 1122.0 | 525.0 | 10025.0 | 2116.75 | 82.0 | 10082.2 | 12728.5 | 2557.0 | 888.25 | 176.25 | 6064.0 |
| 12 | 2015-01-01T11:00:00 | 4011.75 | 1146.25 | 527.25 | 10862.5 | 3364.25 | 82.0 | 9949.0 | 12451.0 | 2657.75 | 876.5 | 884.5 | 5914.75 |
| 13 | 2015-01-01T12:00:00 | 4014.0 | 1139.75 | 527.75 | 11575.2 | 4198.25 | 82.0 | 10119.0 | 12464.5 | 2937.75 | 874.25 | 705.0 | 5778.25 |
| ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ |
| 73705 | 2023-05-30T01:00:00 | 4581.5 | 2033.75 | 3891.75 | 11488.5 | 0.0 | 119.5 | 0.0 | 3523.5 | 1288.5 | 3984.75 | 769.25 | 1146.0 |
| 73706 | 2023-05-30T02:00:00 | 4551.0 | 1963.5 | 3725.5 | 10141.0 | 0.0 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 3484.25 | 1263.75 | 3592.0 | 604.25 | 1141.75 |
| 73707 | 2023-05-30T03:00:00 | 4503.25 | 2090.5 | 3635.25 | 9170.25 | 0.0 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 3490.0 | 1272.5 | 4030.5 | 578.75 | 1132.5 |
| 73708 | 2023-05-30T04:00:00 | 4454.25 | 2105.25 | 3635.75 | 8735.75 | 2.25 | 120.0 | 0.0 | 3678.25 | 1275.0 | 4895.5 | 433.25 | 1136.0 |
| 73709 | 2023-05-30T05:00:00 | 4406.75 | 2134.75 | 2940.0 | 8419.75 | 407.75 | 120.25 | 0.0 | 4087.5 | 1289.25 | 5723.75 | 404.25 | 1142.25 |
| 73710 | 2023-05-30T06:00:00 | 4413.25 | 2227.5 | 2272.5 | 7531.0 | 2888.75 | 128.25 | 0.0 | 5010.75 | 1362.0 | 6525.25 | 2803.75 | 1144.5 |
| 73711 | 2023-05-30T07:00:00 | 4468.0 | 2276.5 | 1916.25 | 5507.25 | 8343.25 | 137.0 | 0.0 | 5275.5 | 1173.75 | 6905.75 | 5712.75 | 1156.75 |
| 73712 | 2023-05-30T08:00:00 | 4503.5 | 2152.5 | 1643.25 | 3647.75 | 15893.2 | 138.0 | 0.0 | 5181.75 | 1196.25 | 6946.5 | 5079.5 | 1132.0 |
| 73713 | 2023-05-30T09:00:00 | 4544.5 | 2156.25 | 1285.0 | 2900.5 | 23612.5 | 135.0 | 0.0 | 4707.5 | 1114.75 | 6384.5 | 2122.75 | 1115.0 |
| 73714 | 2023-05-30T10:00:00 | 4568.25 | 2085.25 | 1241.25 | 2729.5 | 30341.8 | 121.25 | 0.0 | 3978.5 | 1095.5 | 4802.5 | 1279.0 | 1096.25 |
| 73715 | 2023-05-30T11:00:00 | 4618.75 | 2068.25 | 1053.25 | 3115.0 | 35196.2 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 3759.75 | 1151.5 | 3762.25 | 774.0 | 1096.5 |
| 73716 | 2023-05-30T12:00:00 | 4612.25 | 1967.25 | 781.25 | 3496.25 | 37030.0 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 3765.0 | 1296.75 | 3240.0 | 196.75 | 1099.75 |
begin
train = filter(:Datetime => <(Dates.Date(2021)), datetime_clean);
val = filter(:Datetime => d -> Dates.year(d)==2021, datetime_clean);
test = filter(:Datetime => >(Dates.Date(2021)), datetime_clean);
end
| Row | Datetime | Biomasse | Wasserkraft | Wind_Offshore | Wind_Onshore | Photovoltaik | Sonstige_Erneuerbare | Kernenergie | Braunkohle | Steinkohle | Erdgas | Pumpspeicher | Sonstige_Konventionelle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DateTime | Float64? | Float64? | Float64 | Float64 | Float64 | Float64? | Float64 | Float64? | Float64? | Float64? | Float64? | Float64? | |
| 1 | 2021-01-01T01:00:00 | 4584.25 | 1196.25 | 394.5 | 3541.5 | 0.0 | 227.0 | 8150.25 | 11602.8 | 3044.75 | 5409.0 | 518.5 | 1636.25 |
| 2 | 2021-01-01T02:00:00 | 4581.25 | 1164.0 | 305.25 | 3217.0 | 0.0 | 227.0 | 8156.5 | 11758.5 | 3067.25 | 5312.0 | 219.0 | 1630.5 |
| 3 | 2021-01-01T03:00:00 | 4570.75 | 1179.25 | 319.25 | 2787.5 | 0.0 | 227.0 | 8153.75 | 12337.5 | 2852.5 | 5127.0 | 2.0 | 1622.0 |
| 4 | 2021-01-01T04:00:00 | 4571.0 | 1155.0 | 296.25 | 2492.5 | 0.0 | 231.75 | 8150.5 | 12395.0 | 2713.25 | 4993.0 | 6.0 | 1621.75 |
| 5 | 2021-01-01T05:00:00 | 4589.25 | 1145.5 | 432.0 | 2140.75 | 0.0 | 231.25 | 8150.25 | 12699.5 | 2736.5 | 5057.5 | 33.5 | 1650.0 |
| 6 | 2021-01-01T06:00:00 | 4628.25 | 1160.5 | 510.25 | 2010.75 | 0.0 | 232.75 | 8154.5 | 13051.0 | 2836.5 | 5094.0 | 89.75 | 1661.25 |
| 7 | 2021-01-01T07:00:00 | 4693.0 | 1157.5 | 389.25 | 1975.0 | 0.0 | 232.0 | 8152.75 | 12472.5 | 2952.0 | 5169.25 | 926.25 | 1661.25 |
| 8 | 2021-01-01T08:00:00 | 4766.25 | 1152.25 | 359.5 | 2087.5 | 194.0 | 232.0 | 8157.5 | 12435.8 | 3087.25 | 5569.25 | 80.5 | 1648.5 |
| 9 | 2021-01-01T09:00:00 | 4764.75 | 1163.5 | 248.25 | 2123.5 | 1363.75 | 231.0 | 8160.0 | 12169.5 | 3085.0 | 6052.5 | 124.75 | 1652.25 |
| 10 | 2021-01-01T10:00:00 | 4789.5 | 1158.75 | 446.75 | 1920.5 | 2986.5 | 231.0 | 8161.25 | 11607.8 | 3057.75 | 6515.5 | 96.0 | 1663.0 |
| 11 | 2021-01-01T11:00:00 | 4795.5 | 1159.75 | 557.5 | 1627.5 | 4237.5 | 231.0 | 8160.25 | 11257.2 | 3044.25 | 7144.25 | 119.25 | 1644.0 |
| 12 | 2021-01-01T12:00:00 | 4738.5 | 1169.75 | 668.75 | 1322.5 | 4826.75 | 231.0 | 8153.0 | 10870.5 | 3186.25 | 7445.5 | 372.25 | 1654.25 |
| 13 | 2021-01-01T13:00:00 | 4693.5 | 1171.25 | 836.25 | 1158.0 | 4234.25 | 230.25 | 8153.5 | 10875.0 | 3150.25 | 7411.5 | 266.0 | 1660.0 |
| ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ |
| 21096 | 2023-05-30T01:00:00 | 4581.5 | 2033.75 | 3891.75 | 11488.5 | 0.0 | 119.5 | 0.0 | 3523.5 | 1288.5 | 3984.75 | 769.25 | 1146.0 |
| 21097 | 2023-05-30T02:00:00 | 4551.0 | 1963.5 | 3725.5 | 10141.0 | 0.0 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 3484.25 | 1263.75 | 3592.0 | 604.25 | 1141.75 |
| 21098 | 2023-05-30T03:00:00 | 4503.25 | 2090.5 | 3635.25 | 9170.25 | 0.0 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 3490.0 | 1272.5 | 4030.5 | 578.75 | 1132.5 |
| 21099 | 2023-05-30T04:00:00 | 4454.25 | 2105.25 | 3635.75 | 8735.75 | 2.25 | 120.0 | 0.0 | 3678.25 | 1275.0 | 4895.5 | 433.25 | 1136.0 |
| 21100 | 2023-05-30T05:00:00 | 4406.75 | 2134.75 | 2940.0 | 8419.75 | 407.75 | 120.25 | 0.0 | 4087.5 | 1289.25 | 5723.75 | 404.25 | 1142.25 |
| 21101 | 2023-05-30T06:00:00 | 4413.25 | 2227.5 | 2272.5 | 7531.0 | 2888.75 | 128.25 | 0.0 | 5010.75 | 1362.0 | 6525.25 | 2803.75 | 1144.5 |
| 21102 | 2023-05-30T07:00:00 | 4468.0 | 2276.5 | 1916.25 | 5507.25 | 8343.25 | 137.0 | 0.0 | 5275.5 | 1173.75 | 6905.75 | 5712.75 | 1156.75 |
| 21103 | 2023-05-30T08:00:00 | 4503.5 | 2152.5 | 1643.25 | 3647.75 | 15893.2 | 138.0 | 0.0 | 5181.75 | 1196.25 | 6946.5 | 5079.5 | 1132.0 |
| 21104 | 2023-05-30T09:00:00 | 4544.5 | 2156.25 | 1285.0 | 2900.5 | 23612.5 | 135.0 | 0.0 | 4707.5 | 1114.75 | 6384.5 | 2122.75 | 1115.0 |
| 21105 | 2023-05-30T10:00:00 | 4568.25 | 2085.25 | 1241.25 | 2729.5 | 30341.8 | 121.25 | 0.0 | 3978.5 | 1095.5 | 4802.5 | 1279.0 | 1096.25 |
| 21106 | 2023-05-30T11:00:00 | 4618.75 | 2068.25 | 1053.25 | 3115.0 | 35196.2 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 3759.75 | 1151.5 | 3762.25 | 774.0 | 1096.5 |
| 21107 | 2023-05-30T12:00:00 | 4612.25 | 1967.25 | 781.25 | 3496.25 | 37030.0 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 3765.0 | 1296.75 | 3240.0 | 196.75 | 1099.75 |
size(train), size(val), size(test)
((52608, 13), (8760, 13), (21107, 13))
data_y = @chain train begin
@transform(:Year = Dates.year.(:Datetime))
groupby(:Year)
@combine(:Biomasse = sum(:Biomasse), :Wasserkraft = sum(:Wasserkraft), :Wind_Offshore = sum(:Wind_Offshore), :Wind_Onshore = sum(:Wind_Onshore), :Photovoltaik = sum(:Photovoltaik), :Sonstige_Erneuerbare = sum(:Sonstige_Erneuerbare), :Kernenergie = sum(:Kernenergie), :Braunkohle = sum(:Braunkohle) ,:Steinkohle = sum(:Steinkohle), :Erdgas = sum(:Erdgas), :Pumpspeicher = sum(:Pumpspeicher), :Sonstige_Konventionelle = sum(:Sonstige_Konventionelle))
end
| Row | Year | Biomasse | Wasserkraft | Wind_Offshore | Wind_Onshore | Photovoltaik | Sonstige_Erneuerbare | Kernenergie | Braunkohle | Steinkohle | Erdgas | Pumpspeicher | Sonstige_Konventionelle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Int64 | Float64 | Float64 | Float64 | Float64 | Float64 | Float64 | Float64 | Float64 | Float64 | Float64 | Float64 | Float64 | |
| 1 | 2015 | 3.48479e7 | 1.37193e7 | 8.13438e6 | 6.90421e7 | 3.48794e7 | 9.4563e5 | 8.43635e7 | 1.33798e8 | 8.11387e7 | 1.52259e7 | 9.93722e6 | 5.29686e7 |
| 2 | 2016 | 3.97455e7 | 1.80759e7 | 1.20931e7 | 6.52747e7 | 3.45389e7 | 1.40346e6 | 8.02425e7 | 1.30376e8 | 8.089e7 | 2.28888e7 | 8.58761e6 | 4.73436e7 |
| 3 | 2017 | 4.03284e7 | 1.55901e7 | 1.74142e7 | 8.51901e7 | 3.58832e7 | 1.75439e6 | 7.2214e7 | 1.29287e8 | 6.60055e7 | 2.55804e7 | 9.29078e6 | 4.87431e7 |
| 4 | 2018 | 4.00905e7 | 1.52577e7 | 1.90684e7 | 8.92706e7 | 4.12343e7 | 1.53113e6 | 7.18417e7 | 1.28362e8 | 7.15453e7 | 4.28782e7 | 9.13598e6 | 1.2838e7 |
| 5 | 2019 | 4.03876e7 | 1.58305e7 | 2.43828e7 | 9.98789e7 | 4.19148e7 | 1.46438e6 | 7.10422e7 | 1.02729e8 | 4.78153e7 | 5.46197e7 | 9.02058e6 | 1.27306e7 |
| 6 | 2020 | 4.08223e7 | 1.55834e7 | 2.68832e7 | 1.03104e8 | 4.58216e7 | 1.60774e6 | 6.09239e7 | 8.3374e7 | 3.4872e7 | 5.9126e7 | 1.15287e7 | 1.29299e7 |
begin
photovoltaic_train = select(train, :Datetime, :Photovoltaik)
photovoltaic_val = select(val, :Datetime, :Photovoltaik)
end
| Row | Datetime | Photovoltaik |
|---|---|---|
| DateTime | Float64 | |
| 1 | 2021-01-01T00:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 2021-01-01T01:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2021-01-01T02:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2021-01-01T03:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2021-01-01T04:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 6 | 2021-01-01T05:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 7 | 2021-01-01T06:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 8 | 2021-01-01T07:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 9 | 2021-01-01T08:00:00 | 194.0 |
| 10 | 2021-01-01T09:00:00 | 1363.75 |
| 11 | 2021-01-01T10:00:00 | 2986.5 |
| 12 | 2021-01-01T11:00:00 | 4237.5 |
| 13 | 2021-01-01T12:00:00 | 4826.75 |
| ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ |
| 8749 | 2021-12-31T12:00:00 | 10006.8 |
| 8750 | 2021-12-31T13:00:00 | 7878.75 |
| 8751 | 2021-12-31T14:00:00 | 4845.0 |
| 8752 | 2021-12-31T15:00:00 | 1990.75 |
| 8753 | 2021-12-31T16:00:00 | 154.25 |
| 8754 | 2021-12-31T17:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 8755 | 2021-12-31T18:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 8756 | 2021-12-31T19:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 8757 | 2021-12-31T20:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 8758 | 2021-12-31T21:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 8759 | 2021-12-31T22:00:00 | 0.0 |
| 8760 | 2021-12-31T23:00:00 | 0.0 |
# kills the kernel with out of memory
# ols = lm(@formula(Photovoltaik ~ Datetime), photovoltaic_train)
dumb_estimate = photovoltaic_train[!,:Photovoltaik] |> x -> mean(x)
4453.166181949513
error_dumb_estimate = mean(abs.(photovoltaic_val[!,:Photovoltaik] .- dumb_estimate))
6217.043334561944
function estimate_me(df, datetime)
return df[!,:Photovoltaik] |> x -> mean(x)
end
estimate_me (generic function with 1 method)
function error(df, range_of_datetimes, val)
estimates = estimate.(df, range_of_datetimes)
return mean(abs.(val[!,:Photovoltaik] .- estimates))
end
error (generic function with 1 method)
estimate_me(photovoltaic_train, 0)
4453.166181949513
# vectorization does not work as the first argument will be vectorized as well
#estimate_me.(photovoltaic_train, [0,1,2])
dumb_estimates = repeat([dumb_estimate], size(val)[1]);
fig = Figure()
ax = Axis(fig[1,1])
scatter!(ax,val.Photovoltaik, color = "red", label = "val", markersize = 4)
scatter!(ax, dumb_estimates, color = "blue", label = "predict",markersize = 4)
axislegend(ax)
fig
nm = ["Robin", "Sabine", "Dharu"]
3-element Vector{String}:
"Robin"
"Sabine"
"Dharu"
rand(nm)
"Dharu"
lg = ["Jl1", "Jl2", "Py"]
3-element Vector{String}:
"Jl1"
"Jl2"
"Py"
Random.shuffle(lg)
3-element Vector{String}:
"Py"
"Jl1"
"Jl2"